Is the economy at risk of a recession?
September 29, 2023
The Federal Reserve is focused on fighting inflation with ongoing policy moves intended to slow consumer demand. Does this put the economy at risk of a recession?
Financial perspectives
Market news
Keep up to date with weekly market analyses, quarterly investment outlooks and other timely financial news.
Global Economic Health Check
Source: U.S. Bank Asset Management Group, September 22, 2023. The proprietary U.S. Bank Global Economic Health Check analyzes more than 1,000 data points across 22 major economies representing 80% of total global wealth to reflect our view of the strength of economic growth worldwide.
Weekly market analysis
Congressional lawmakers continue to negotiate a spending bill to fund the government. A shutdown looms on October 1, which could impair government inflation and labor market data collection prior to the Fed’s next policy meeting on October 31-November 1.
Quarterly outlook
Q3 2023 Investment Outlook: Resilient consumers propel stocks higher
U.S. stocks are higher so far this year, with enthusiasm for AI bolstering growth-oriented technology companies. Will this strong market performance broaden to other S&P 500 sectors in the year’s second half?
News and updates
Stay informed on key topics likely to impact markets, the economy and investors.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady
September 20, 2023
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady today but projects rates will remain higher for some time. Learn more in this situation analysis from our investment strategists.
The impact of today’s higher interest rates on the housing market
September 27, 2023
Home values are rising and homebuilding activity is gaining uneven momentum as 30-year mortgage rates hit highs not seen for decades.
How do rising interest rates affect the stock market?
September 25, 2023
With interest rates continuing to go up, learn what the ripple effects across capital markets may mean for investor portfolios.
Treasury yields invert as investors weigh risk of recession
September 22, 2023
What does an inverted yield curve say about the economy’s prospects for a recession?
How rising interest rates impact the bond market
September 21, 2023
With the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates for longer to get inflation under control, what opportunities does this create for bond investors?
Federal Reserve focuses monetary policy on fighting inflation
September 21, 2023
With the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates and no longer providing liquidity to the bond market, investors should prepare for change as the Fed continues its fight to lower inflation.
Analysis: China’s economy and its influence on global markets
September 18, 2023
What should investors consider when seeking emerging market exposure to the world’s second-largest economy?
Cash management and investing strategies when interest rates are up
September 15, 2023
A fresh look at managing cash and investments in today’s higher interest rate environment.
Investors focus attention on corporate earnings
September 15, 2023
What do the latest corporate earnings reveal about the direction of the economy and markets in 2023?
Is the market correction over?
September 15, 2023
As the economy slows amid higher inflation and rising interest rates, investors look for signs that this year’s stock market rally can be sustained.
Analysis: Assessing inflation’s impact
September 13, 2023
While the pace of rising inflation is slowing, persistently higher prices continue to weigh on consumers and policymakers alike.
How does consumer spending impact the health of the economy?
September 7, 2023
In a delicate balancing act with a Federal Reserve intent on slowing the economy to fight inflation, steady consumer spending has helped avoid a recession. But does record household debt threaten to tip the scales?
Understanding the federal budget impasse and potential government shutdown
September 11, 2023
With the potential for a government shutdown looming over politically charged budget negotiations coming to a head at the end of September, our investment strategists consider the capital market implications and possible impact on investors.
The effect of the job market on the economy
September 6, 2023
Set against the backdrop of persistent inflation, the strong job market has drawn the attention of the Federal Reserve as it calibrates monetary policy to help curb inflation.
Financial planning considerations when inflation is high and interest rates are rising
August 30, 2023
Persistent inflation and rising interest rates affect your ability to meet your financial goals. Consider these strategies to help mitigate risk and boost potential returns.
How do supply chain issues contribute to inflation?
August 22, 2023
As supply chain bottlenecks subside, so do associated inflationary pressures on the economy.
Stock market under the Biden administration
August 9, 2023
Explore how capital markets have fared so far under the Biden administration and discover what to expect during the rest of the president’s first term in office.
How commodity prices can impact markets and inflation
July 26, 2023
What opportunities does today’s volatile commodities market offer investors?
Russia-Ukraine conflict and its continued impact on global markets
July 21, 2023
As the most significant military conflict in Europe since World War II drags on, the Russia-Ukraine war continues to impact global markets in significant ways.
Tactical asset allocation in a changing market
July 14, 2023
Consider these tactical asset allocation strategies to help enhance investment returns and manage overall portfolio risk.
How to invest in today’s market
July 13, 2023
Tighter monetary policy intended to lower inflation will likely contribute to decelerating economic growth in the U.S. during the second half of the year, while ideally avoiding a recession.
Investing in tech stocks: Is now a good time?
July 6, 2023
After an abysmal 2022, tech stocks are up this year – outperforming the broader S&P 500 by a wide margin. What does this mean for investors?
The fluctuating value of the U.S. dollar and what it means for investors
July 6, 2023
Taking measure of global currency trends as you position your investment portfolio.
Debt ceiling legislation passed by Congress
June 2, 2023
With passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, Congress and the Biden administration resolved the debt ceiling debate and avoided a government default. Find out what this may mean for the economy, capital markets and investors.
Media mentions
Investor appetite for risk persists amid recession fears and potential rate hikes
9.23.23 | Investing | Article
The current narrow credit spreads suggest investor optimism for a soft economic landing where inflation cools down and the economy avoids a recession, according to Bill Merz, head of capital market research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
Wall Street ends sharply lower as chipmakers and megacaps slide
9.15.23 | Reuters | Article
“We really continue to see that growth resilience story, and I think that's difficult for the market simply because there's concern about what that could mean both for rates and inflation,” said Lisa Erickson, head of public markets at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.
IPOs are not meeting valuation expectations
9.12.23 | CFO Brew | Article
“Present value calculations of future earnings for stocks are tied to assumptions about interest rates or inflation,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
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