- “Flash” U.S. purchasing manager surveys (early results) from S&P Global continue to recover in March. Services are accelerating while manufacturing surveys indicate moderation in the ongoing contraction. Durable goods orders fell 1% in February, an improvement from the 5% decline in January, but consistent with the contraction signaled in the purchasing manager survey. Services data reflect a strong labor market; weekly initial jobless claims remained below 200,000 for the ninth week out of 12 so far in 2023.
- The recent stabilization of mortgage rates at a multi-decade high may be helping the U.S. housing market, with February data indicating strong rebounds in new home sales. The annualized rate of 640,000 new homes is the highest since August 2022, and 4.58 million annualized existing home sales is the highest since September 2022. Despite low inventories and poor affordability due to still-elevated mortgage rates, housing demand appears to be recovering.
- Flash March purchasing manager surveys indicate modest improvements for Europe and Japan, led by service sectors. Service sector surveys improved for both regions, helped by travel and tourism. Manufacturing sentiment improved for both regions as well but continues to signal contraction in activity; orders remain light and supply disruptions have mostly ended.