Webinar
Spring 2024 Investment Outlook – April 10
Capitalizing on today’s market opportunities to meet your financial goals.
The U.S. Bank proprietary Global Health Check incorporates more than 1,000 data points — including business climate factors and economic sector categories for 22 major economies representing 80 percent of total global wealth — to reflect our view of the current strength of worldwide economic growth.
3.3%
Consensus expectations for earnings growth in the first quarter compared to a year earlier. Fourth quarter 2023 earnings grew 8.0% year-over-year.
Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections
A summary of Federal Open Market Committee participants' projections for economic growth, the unemployment rate, inflation and the appropriate policy interest rate. The summary is released four times per year.
“We raised our S&P 500 year-end 2024 price target to 5,520 from 4,950, up 5.5% from Friday’s close, based on a multiple of 23 times projected earnings of $240. While elevated, a multiple of 23 remains short of historical extremes, and projected earnings of $240 for 2024 is in line with current consensus projections.”
― Terry Sandven, Portfolio Manager, Chief Equity Strategist, U.S. Bank
Quick take: Lower interest rates are supporting the U.S. housing market. Purchasing manager surveys are generally improving across the global economy, led by strength across the U.S. and in services activity outside the U.S.
Our view: The global economy continues to see moderating growth, especially across manufacturing activity. Global inflation continues to decelerate. Despite higher interest rates, the U.S. Bank Economic Team sees conditions consistent with a soft landing in the U.S.
Quick take: U.S. equities continue to trend at or near all-time highs, with overall market breadth improving. However, some recent earnings reports highlight growing pressure on consumers, particularly lower-income groups.
Our view: Inflation is persistent but appears to be waning, interest rates are elevated but with downside bias and earnings projections have stabilized, all serving as a basis for stocks to trend higher.
Quick take: Federal Reserve committee members increased their forecasts for growth and inflation in 2024 but still expect multiple interest rate cuts will be appropriate this year. Treasury yields fell (bond prices rose) as investors became more confident the Fed will cut rates multiple times by year-end.
Our view: Bond yields already incorporate gradual rate cuts, which creates two-sided risk for prices, but high-quality bonds still offer an attractive source of steady income for portfolios. Riskier high yield bonds are expensive by historic standards but continue to benefit from resilient economic growth and strong investor demand.
Quick take: Infrastructure stocks were the best performers in real assets last week, with declining interest rates creating broad-based gains, but they still trailed the broader market. Real Estate provided mixed performance and commodities moved mostly lower as the dollar rose. Food-based commodities were the lone bright spot, led by large gains in the cocoa market.
Our view: Diversified publicly traded real estate trusts remain inexpensive relative to private real estate. Tangible assets with stable cash flows present relative opportunities if currently strong investor sentiment erodes. Commodities remain vulnerable if consensus expectations for falling inflation and decelerating growth come to fruition.
We use a data- and process-driven three step methodology to develop an investment strategy unique to you.
With the U.S. government’s authority to borrow money bumping up against the federally mandated debt limit this year, is a political confrontation brewing that could impact capital markets?
The economy doesn’t just move in a straight line. Our Health Check assesses its direction and how fast it’s moving.