Federal Reserve calibrates policy to keep inflation in check

While acknowledging growing economic risks, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is holding the line on the federal funds target rate it controls. At its March 2025 meeting, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, as expected, maintained its target interest rate range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The Fed last cut rates in December 2024. FOMC members still project two potential 2025 rate cuts.

The federal funds target rate is the rate banks charge each other for overnight lending. It also tends to influence consumer rates such as home mortgages and automobile loans. The Fed’s interest rate policy decision comes in an environment of increasing economic uncertainty. Investors are assessing potential economic implications as President Donald Trump pursues new policy initiatives, including stepped-up tariffs with major U.S. trading partners. In its statement following March’s FOMC meeting, the Fed stated, “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.”¹

FOMC members issued a Summary of Economic Projections and their expectations about where significant measures of the economy will stand by year’s end. Among the most notable projections² were:

• Lowered economic growth expectations, anticipating 1.7% 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. This is lower than the previous 2.1% growth estimate and down from 2024’s 2.8% GDP growth.
• Higher Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation, with the FOMC projecting 2.8% core PCE inflation compared to its previous 2.5% projection.

While these changes aren’t dramatic, they raise concerns about current and future trends. Inflation risks are always a key Fed consideration. In comments following the March 19 meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “Some near-term measures of inflation expectations have recently moved up…consumers and businesses are mentioning tariffs as a driving factor.”³ President Trump has already raised tariffs on some foreign goods the U.S. imports, with more tariffs potentially on the horizon.

Powell noted that Trump administration policies on trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and deregulation “will matter for the economy and the path of monetary policy.” But the Fed wasn’t yet ready to act. Said Powell, “We think that the right thing to do is wait here for greater clarity about what the economy is doing.”³

Investors may have to wait until the Fed’s next two meetings, in May and June 2025, to see more definitive action. “The Fed is in a wait-and-see mode, waiting on the data,” says Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director with U.S. Bank Asset Management. “It started cutting rates last year based on rising unemployment and slower inflation. Until we get major data changes like that, they’ll remain extremely cautious about cutting interest rates further.”

Slowing down balance sheet tapering

Along with interest rate actions, another Fed monetary policy tool is its balance sheet of financial assets. During recent challenging economic periods, the Fed tried to boost economic activity by purchasing fixed income assets, such as U.S. government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. The Fed’s market participation helped moderate interest rates. The balance sheet of assets grew to just under $9 trillion in 2022. Since that time, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet, now down to less than $6.8 trillion.⁴

Notably after its March meeting, the FOMC announced plans to slow the decline in its securities holdings. Beginning in April, it will start reducing Treasury securities holdings by just $5 billion per month, rather than the previous $25 billion per month. The Fed will continue monthly $35 billion reductions in its mortgage-backed securities holdings, a policy that’s been in place for some time.

Managing inflation and unemployment

In 2024’s summer and fall months, the Fed’s focus shifted from an emphasis on tempering inflation to one of maintaining labor market health. While inflation is down considerably from a 9.1% 2022 peak, in 2024, the rate of decline leveled off.⁵ Inflation is not an immediate concern, though the Fed’s radar appears to be zeroed in on the potential that tariffs could push prices higher.

In recent months, the labor market appeared to stabilize. The nation’s unemployment rate stands at 4.1%.5 Markets pay close attention to the weekly initial jobless claims report, considered a real-time source of labor market trends. The most recent data shows initial jobless claims remaining in a comfortable range.⁶ “Concern would grow if weekly initial claims exceed 300,000,” says Haworth.

Market reactions to Fed moves

With the spotlight on Trump administration policy shifts and their potential economic ramifications, the Fed, in its “wait-and-see” mode, is not driving the market today as it was before. Still, Fed actions and projections remain a critical market focus. So far in 2025, equity markets are experiencing heightened volatility, apparently in reaction to White House policy announcements.

At the same time, bond markets are performing better than U.S. stocks. 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields are significantly lower than in recent months. However, they remain elevated by recent historical standards.

Where does the Fed go from here

The policymaking FOMC next meets in mid-May 2025. Markets expect the Fed to hold the line on rates at that meeting, with a higher likelihood of a rate cut at its June 2025 meeting.⁷

As the Fed continues to address monetary policy, be sure to consult with your financial professional and review portfolio positioning. Explore whether changes might be appropriate given your goals, time horizon and feelings toward risk in today’s evolving interest rate environment.