A new phase of the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
The Russia-Ukraine war was mired in a virtual stalemate for months, but Russia began taking a more aggressive posture in early 2024, seeking to solidify its hold on additional territory in eastern Ukraine. Following long delays, the U.S. Congress in April 2024 approved a package of additional funding to provide Ukraine with weapons support. In 2024’s summer months, Ukrainian troops crossed the border into Russia, seizing some territory. Russia responded by stepping up attacks on Ukrainian cities. Events of recent months indicate that the war’s intensity is growing, and appears no closer to a resolution
“Russia is struggling against the backdrop of a supreme leader [Putin] who is bound and determined in his objective of taking military control over Ukraine,” says David Bridges, senior geopolitical and security advisor at Fidelity Management and Research Company. Bridges, who was a former operations officer at the CIA, including significant time in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, says Putin may have deceived himself about the level of effort that was required to potentially claim a victory in Ukraine. Yet Putin has remained persistent in maintaining military pressure despite significant casualties that have accumulated since Russia first invaded Ukraine more than two years ago.
Along with U.S. backing, Ukraine has benefited from the support of other NATO allies. However, within NATO countries, ongoing support for Ukraine’s war effort is far from universal. Political disagreement over continued funding represents a threat to Ukraine’s ability to fend off Russian attacks. Election outcomes in the U.S. and elsewhere may well determine the war’s future direction.
Fending off an expanding Middle East conflict
The Israel-Hamas conflict is the latest in a long series of Middle East military encounters. The situation intensified following a brutal October 2023 attack on Israeli territory by Hamas. Israel responded with its own invasion of the Gaza Strip, using ground troops and massive aerial bombardment. It resulted in significant destruction of Gaza territory and thousands of casualties, including civilians. The bloody conflict also leads to concerns regarding the potential for a more widespread conflict that embroils other countries.
An early offshoot of the Israeli-Hamas conflict was attacks on Red Sea shipping activity by Yemeni-based Houthi rebels. The Red Sea is used as a major navigation waterway leading to the Suez Canal. Attacks disrupted shipping activity, particularly affecting the movement of oil supplies. The war’s potential to expand by involving another Israeli enemy, Hezbollah, based in the border country of Lebanon, could complicate matters. There have been recent flareups between Israel and Hezbollah. The potential for Iranian involvement in battles against Israel is a growing concern. If the Middle East situation becomes more widespread, significant global economic ramifications could emerge.
Geopolitical implications
One result of Russia’s aggressive stance toward Ukraine is an expansion of NATO membership. Finland, which shares an 830-mile border with Russia, was accepted as part of the alliance in 2023. Sweden was added in 2024.