Kaush Amin, head of private market investing for U.S. Bank Wealth Management, discusses expectations for ramped-up transaction activity in the year ahead

What’s your outlook for private equity for 2026? Will declining interest rates play a role?
The industry was very optimistic heading into 2025 in hopes of a conducive environment. The current administration indicated it would be business-friendly and more lenient on regulations, and interest rates were supposed to come down. But a lot of things changed through the course of the year, including tariff announcements and the fact that interest rates did not come down that quickly.

It was a good year for private equity, and the pent-up demand and need for transactions continues into 2026. If positive momentum continues on the macroeconomic and policy front, our expectation is that we’ll see additional ramp up in initial public offerings and mergers and acquisitions. There’s a lot of transaction activity lined up to take place in 2026.

Kaush Amin

Whether these deals get done depends on a number of factors, including the broader market environment, the macro environment, declining interest rates, policy, deregulation and inflation.

Lower interest rates are definitely good for transactions because they reduce borrowing costs for companies and make stocks more attractive to investors. Some well-known companies could explore listing on public markets in 2026, and a strong reception could open the doors wide for others to follow.

What are you watching going into 2026?
For 2026, we have 12 themes, including opportunities within sports and related ecosystems; small business rollups for regional fragmented businesses (for example, acquiring many small players like those providing home services or collision repair and creating a larger, more efficient entity); and multi-family real estate in underserved markets like the Midwest.

We also see significant opportunities in the digitization of the aerospace, defense and government services sectors, driven by the need to modernize legacy systems and enhance operational efficiency as staffing constraints intensify. The growing need for power presents compelling opportunities, and we see this secular trend persisting for the foreseeable future.

Within sports and related ecosystems, we see opportunities for investors to become minority or majority stake owners in sports franchises, college sports or even sports leagues. There are so many leagues – an equestrian league, for example. These were typically owned by enthusiasts.

But now the reach has expanded. There’s now an opportunity for investors to come in and help them grow. And it’s more than just the franchises and the leagues – it’s the related tech solutions and businesses that are part of the sports ecosystem.

“There are a lot of things an individual investor should consider before investing in private equity.”

– Kaush Amin

 

The number of public companies is shrinking and private markets are expanding. Why is that?
The amount of capital that has accumulated within private markets has grown substantially since the 2000s. There’s more capital available now for private companies to get funded that they previously didn’t have access to within private markets.

Today, most growth occurs while companies are still private. For example, Snowflake, a data cloud company, went public in 2020 with a valuation of $33 billion. In contrast, Netflix listed publicly in 2002 at a valuation of $300 million before launching its streaming service in 2007 — meaning the majority of its growth happened after becoming a public company.

There are a number of other reasons companies stay private. One is the cost of listing a company on a stock exchange like the New York Stock Exchange or the Nasdaq. There’s an advisory fee, which can be around 7% of funds raised.

After listing, the company has ongoing yearly costs of anywhere from $2 million to $5 million just to be public and meet the regulatory requirements. And, as a public company you must report on a quarterly basis. You are under a lot of scrutiny: everyone’s watching your numbers and what your management is saying and dissecting the statements you make.

When you combine the regulatory aspects, the costs, disclosures and sensitive information – all of that has made it much more difficult to be public. When you’re private, you don’t have to face the majority of those issues, and the company management can instead focus on long-term business growth rather than meeting quarterly analyst expectations. And, investing in a private company offers a number of potential benefits, such as higher returns, lower volatility than public markets, exposure to a broader range of industries and company sizes not available publicly, and access to unique opportunities.

That has reduced the number of companies that were public back in 2000 from around 8,000 to close to 5,000 now.

Why become public at all?
Companies typically choose to go public to raise capital from public market investors. Public markets are much broader and provide access to a larger pool of investors.

Plus you continue to have access to additional fundraising through public markets through the sale of company stock or by issuing debt.

Companies also choose to go public to provide liquidity to their original investors, who had invested with them when they were private, as well as to their employees.

Historically, it has been a badge of honor for founders to grow a company and eventually be traded on a stock exchange.

Can anyone invest in private equity?
To invest in traditional private equity, you have to be a qualified purchaser. Essentially you have to have $5 million in net worth outside your primary residence, as an individual investor. Because of that requirement and the complexity of these investments, traditionally institutional investors with institutional capital (e.g. pension plans, endowments) have invested in that category. But the industry is trying to make access more democratic by offering private equity in 401(k) plans, for example.

There are a lot of things an individual investor should consider before investing in private equity. Private markets are very opaque. The Securities and Exchange Commission does not regulate private equity the way it does public markets. Your money is often locked up for a long time, these investments can carry significant risk, and costs and fees can be quite high, eating into returns. The solutions that are being created for individual investors may or may not meet the objectives they claim.

It’s important for investors to be cautious when investing in this space and to work with experts who know how to source and evaluate these opportunities. Something may sound good, but is it really delivering the goods?

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