Economic view
From the desk of Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino
August 5, 2026
The tariff shock fades, but the trade map shifts
It’s been 15 months since “Liberation Day” and we’ve seen multiple swings along the way.
ECONOMIC INSIGHTS AND COMMENTARY
Analysis and views on the economy, markets and policy
Stay informed on issues shaping the U.S. and world economies and gain perspective from the U.S. Bank Economic Research Group on how your organization can navigate today’s economic environment.
Weekly Economic Highlights
Week of August 10: Doing more with less
Monthly Economic Outlook
Macroeconomic forecast: Resilience has consequences
In the spotlight
Economic indicators
Recession indicators: Adjusting to evolving signals
August 5, 2026
While exceptional economic circumstances may, in part, explain why normal recession indicators have been off the mark in recent years, it’s beneficial to expand the scope of indicators to obtain clearer signals.
Tariffs and Trade
Trump administration’s economic plan: Potential impact on the broader economy and businesses
July 20, 2026
President Donald Trump’s economic plans, including trade policies, raise questions about the impact on the broader economy and specific industries.
Labor Market
U.S. labor market: Low-hire, low-fire economy
August 13, 2026
The current state of the U.S. labor market maintains a steady “low-hire, low-fire” condition. Explore job growth trends, unemployment data and recession risks.
Economics
The K-shaped economy in 2026: Uneven resilience and the forces shaping growth
July 8, 2026
The K-shape reflects a bifurcated path: high‑income households and capital‑intensive sectors benefit from asset appreciation and technological change, while lower‑wage workers face more limited income growth and thinner financial buffers.
Healthcare
How the U.S. healthcare system is shaping the economy
June 17, 2026
Healthcare touches nearly every corner of the U.S. economy, from household budgets to employer benefit costs, and as its footprint grows, small shifts in costs, staffing and efficiency can ripple far beyond hospitals and clinics.
Global Monetary Policy
How global monetary policy affects the economy
May 22, 2026
Interest-rate policy impacts businesses and consumers alike, determining inflation trends and labor market strength as central banks manage competing economic priorities.
Global Economy
Can the global economy continue growing?
June 12, 2026
Years of post‑pandemic recovery, persistent inflation and rising tariffs have shaped today’s global economy, leaving growth intact but increasingly uneven across regions and sectors.
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