The old saying, “if you can’t beat them, join them” has some merit when it comes to embracing the seasonality of homebuying.

The back-to-school season typically kicks off a slower time for home sales. But rather than bracing for impact, real estate agents can adapt their business strategy to better prepare for market shifts and continue to find opportunities to work with prospective buyers.

Understanding who’s buying, why they’re buying and what motivates them can pay dividends in generating a steady flow of business even during the slower fall months.

Fall home sales are less active.

Industry data shows a clear trend in the seasonality of home sales across the year, with spring and summer representing the more active months. Historically, fall is less active, with a decline in the number of sales and an increase in average days on the market.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the average number of new home sales per day in October drops from a peak of 2,040 in March and April to 1,670 in October – an 18% decrease – while the average days on market climbs from a low of 31 to 40.1

The fall real estate market still offers opportunities.

The glass-half-full view is that there is seasonality in almost every business, real estate included. So, even though there is a decline in activity in autumn, there are still pockets of opportunities that exist with both buying and selling that remain year-round.

In addition, real estate agents need to take some of those traditional seasonal patterns with a grain of salt, as a variety of economic factors, such as a drop in interest rates, can end up spurring more buying activity.

Market activity does not always follow traditional seasonal patterns. Economic conditions, including changes in mortgage rates, housing inventory and buyer confidence, can create periods of stronger-than-expected homebuying activity during the fall months.

The best time to buy a house depends on what your buyers want.

There are other factors that can create pockets of opportunities for real estate agents in autumn, including:

  • New construction: According to NAR, new home sales are less sensitive to seasonality compared with existing-home sales, in part because new homes are sold before they are fully constructed.1 In addition, many builders, particularly in warmer climates, maintain an ongoing pipeline of new homes, with construction occurring all year.
  • Stronger negotiating power: Both sales activity and prices follow a similar trendline, meaning that prices are higher when the housing market is more active and that prices fall slightly during the slower months. For homebuyers, that can result in less competition and more leverage to negotiate better terms during the fall months, which is especially attractive to price-sensitive buyers.
  • Regional differences: Real estate agents also need to adjust seasonality to account for their local market dynamics. For example, popular snowbird destinations, such as Arizona, California and Texas, have different ebbs and flows in seasonality. Snowbirds start to visit warmer destinations in the fall months with an intent to buy before the “high season,” which is often the colder winter months – December through February.

Certain groups are well suited to the fall real estate market.

Fall is a great time to connect with homebuyers who are looking to buy now, as well as strengthen relationships with those buyers who are waiting for the right opportunity.

First-time buyers: First-time homebuyers continue to face affordability challenges. According to NAR, first-time buyers accounted for just 21% of home purchases, while the median age of first-time buyers rose to 40, both reflecting the ongoing barriers many buyers face in today’s market.2 Putting prospective first-time buyers in touch with financing resources, such as down payment assistance programs, could help spur buying activity in the fall.

Investors: According to Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), investors accounted for roughly 29% of single-family home purchases in 2025, underscoring the continued role investors play in housing markets across the country.3

Relocation buyers: People who are facing a corporate relocation or move due to a job change are active year-round, and this group is typically motivated to find a home quickly.

Empty nesters: According to Zillow, there are approximately 20.9 million empty-nester households in the U.S.4 This group of typically 55+ buyers is often looking to downsize, relocate to a more maintenance-free home or move closer to their adult children.

Second-home buyers: Whether it’s a winter getaway or summer home, second-home buyers may be more motivated to buy a home in the “off season” to prepare for the next season. According to Vacasa's latest vacation-home market analysis, destinations such as North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina; Dauphin Island, Alabama; and Florida's Emerald Coast continue to attract interest from second-home buyers seeking lifestyle and investment opportunities.5

Families with children: Down but not out. Yes, most families with school-age children prefer to buy in the spring and summer to avoid disruption during the school year, especially if it involves changing school districts. However, a more challenging market to find that right home – in the right location and at the right price – has resulted in people who are keeping an eye out for buying opportunities. This is particularly true in high-demand school districts where there is a limited supply of homes for sale. So, don’t count out the back-to-school real estate market.

Connect with a mortgage loan officer to take advantage of the fall real estate market.

Fall is an opportune time to take a more targeted approach by focusing on buyers who are active in your respective market. It’s important to take the time to understand their key drivers, financing ability and what it is they want and need in that new home purchase.

Mortgage loan officers at U.S. Bank are available to serve as a resource to discuss a buyer’s qualifications and the various financing options available to find the right solution for their unique situation.

We’re dedicated to helping your clients land the home of their dreams.

Discover how we can support you and your clients with a variety of product options and years of industry experience.

Expand your knowledge with educational resources designed to help you stay on top of home-buying trends impacting your business.

Start of disclosure content
Disclosures
  1. Copyright ©2024 “Navigating the housing market: A seasonal perspective.” National Association of Realtors®. April 29, 2024.
    https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/navigating-the-housing-market-a-seasonal-perspective

  2. Copyright ©2025 “Highlights from the 2025 profile of home buyers and sellers.” National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Accessed August 2026. https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/2025-11/2025-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers-highlights-11-04-2025.pdf

  3. Cotality (formerly CoreLogic). “Investors buy nearly one-third of homes across US.” August 2025. https://www.cotality.com/press-releases/investors-buy-nearly-one-third-of-homes-across-us

  4. Zillow. (2024, December 5). “A ‘silver tsunami’ won’t solve housing affordability challenges.” Accessed May 20, 2025.
    https://www.zillow.com/research/empty-nesters-affordability-34636/

  5. Vacasa. “Top 25 best places to buy a vacation home 2025.” Accessed May 20, 2025.
    https://www.vacasa.com/top-markets/2025-best-places-to-buy-a-vacation-home

Start of disclosure content

Loan approval is subject to credit approval and program guidelines. Not all loan programs are available in all states for all loan amounts. Interest rate and program terms are subject to change without notice. Mortgage, Home Equity and Credit products are offered through U.S. Bank National Association. Deposit products are offered through U.S. Bank National Association. Member FDIC.

Start of disclosure content