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Third Quarter 2020
Investment outlook

Markets are rebounding, thanks to significant policy support initiated to combat the global recession caused by COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns. The coming quarters are critical to evaluate how companies, countries and regions are emerging from these recent challenges. Strong market performance in the second quarter implies investors anticipate some progress, while continued central bank support of low borrowing costs should support ongoing recovery.

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Thoughts from our Chief Investment Officer

“These are difficult times, but throughout this period we have found that clients who are grounded in a financial plan – tailored to their unique circumstances – can withstand market volatility within a constant news cycle.”

- Eric Freedman, Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Bank Wealth Management

S&P 500 annual returns: 1990-2020

Looking at the history of the market’s expansions and contractions can help you gain a fresh perspective on the advantages of investing for the long term.

Despite sizable declines in many years, 21 out of the last 30 years ended with positive returns.

Source: U.S. Bank, FactSet Global Research Systems.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely traded stocks that are considered to represent the performance of the stock market in general. Equity securities are subject to stock market fluctuations that occur in response to economic and business developments.

Daily market analysis
7.2.20 | 5:00 p.m. CT

Market update:

The S&P 500 closed up today 0.45% at 3,130.01. Earnings reporting unofficially begins during the second week of July. Expectations are low, with year-over-year revenue and earnings projected to decline approximately 11% and 43%, respectively, according to FactSet.

Our take:

We recommend normal strategic allocations across stocks, bonds and real estate. We also emphasize important biases with those categories, including a preference for U.S. over international equities and large and mid-capitalization stocks over small. Technology and Healthcare are among our preferred longer-term sectors. Diversified portfolios should maintain bond exposure near long-term strategic targets with a tilt toward higher-quality credits. Investment-grade corporate and municipal bond yields compared to Treasuries remain elevated, and appear attractive.

Latest market updates

 
6.29.20

Weekly market analysis

The second quarter’s stock market rally has stalled on rising concerns about the accelerating spread of COVID-19.

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6.26.20
Markets weaken; we remain “glass half full”

News that daily virus infections reached a record high in the U.S. pushed stock prices to near monthly lows for June. Read the latest insights from our investment strategists.

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6.11.20
Stock market drops as coronavirus cases increase

Stocks fell today on new concerns over COVID-19. Our investment strategists consider the impact on markets.

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6.10.20
Fed shares economic forecast

The Federal Reserve has taken more sweeping actions this year than ever before. As their June meeting concludes this week, our investment strategists break down the first economic forecast from the Fed since the COVID-19 outbreak.

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6.5.20
U.S. Bank Capital Market Update: Has economic recovery begun?

While we remain positive and optimistic about the investment landscape, we encourage clients to stay centered on their financial plan.

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5.28.20
Stocks rally on hopes of economy reopening

Stocks have rallied this week on optimism about the economy reopening and people getting back to work — despite deep unemployment and falling productivity numbers across the U.S. economy due to the impact of COVID-19.

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4.29.20
Paycheck Protection Program update

Congress has authorized additional funding to the Small Business Association for the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), which is part of the CARES Act, is a federal loan program that can help eligible small and medium-sized businesses impacted by the coronavirus.

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4.3.20
Financial relief under the CARES Act

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act provides a variety of ways to help your financial position in a period where the economy is dealing with a wide range of unprecedented challenges.

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U.S. Bank in the news

7.1.20 | Yahoo! Finance | Video
Senior Investment Director on the "disconnect" between economic data and capital markets
William Northey, U.S. Bank Wealth Management's Senior Investment Director, joins The Final Round to discuss the impact of COVID-19 on markets and what this means for the shape of recovery.

6.28.20 | Reuters | Article
Wall Street leads stocks' rebound, sterling dips
Bill Merz, head of fixed income research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis, said he expected small changes for long-term yields, noting that Treasuries may be “one of the least-interesting markets for the rest of the year” due to the Fed’s influence on the short end of the curve.

6.26.20 | MarketBeat | Article
Stocks sink as virus cases jump, forcing states to backtrack
“That certainly calls into question how vigorous this recovery will be,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.

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